Trump Jr exits Kalshi amid Polymarket push

iGaming Business reported that in the United States prediction markets, Donald Trump Jr. has ended his advisory role with Kalshi after his venture fund increased its investment in rival Polymarket, amid rapid valuation jumps and mounting legal uncertainty.

What happened

• Donald Trump Jr. has severed ties with Kalshi following the US midterm elections that produced a Democratic “Blue sweep.” According to the report, he initially received a $300,000 equity stake in Kalshi in January 2025, months after his father won the 2024 presidential election over Kamala Harris.
• Shortly after that election, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board when his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, made an initial $200 million strategic investment. Talks over his exit from Kalshi accelerated when 1789 Capital increased its Polymarket position and led a $1 billion round in August with a further $300 million.
• Kalshi said it had “mutually agreed” on Trump Jr.’s advisory role ending after the competitor investment, adding: “We are grateful for his contributions in helping market Kalshi to more customers,” in a statement to Bloomberg.
• Kalshi’s valuation has raced higher. The company was valued at under $2 billion when the 2024 presidential vote concluded. By May, it had reached $22 billion after a $1 billion round led by Coatue. A subsequent $1 billion raise in October valued Kalshi at around $40 billion. Now, the company is reportedly in talks to raise another $1 billion at a $65 billion valuation, a 62.5% uplift from October if completed.
• Speculation around eventual IPOs for both Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified. However, another quick-fire private round for Kalshi could indicate a preference to stay private for longer.
• On market performance, both platforms correctly priced a Democratic sweep before polls closed on Election Night, with Democrats winning both the Senate and the House for the first time since 2023. The 2024 election also marked an inflection point for political event contracts, with several seven-figure trades reportedly placed on Trump just before midnight on Election Night.
• The legal picture remains unsettled. In April, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. In August, the Ninth Circuit took the opposite view, finding they are not protected as swaps under the CEA. The Ninth Circuit has since denied Kalshi’s bid for a rehearing, starting a 90-day window to seek US Supreme Court review, according to gaming attorney Daniel Wallach. The dispute pits claims of exclusive federal oversight of derivatives against state-level laws on sports betting.
• As a snapshot of market pricing, Trump Jr. had odds of 0.5% to win the 2028 US presidential election on Friday morning. At those odds, a $100 “yes” wager would return $18,697.71, per the report.

Why it matters

• For UK industry watchers, the US remains a bellwether for how event contracts might evolve at scale. Rapid shifts in valuation at Kalshi, together with stepped-up backing for Polymarket, suggest investor confidence in prediction markets could be broadening. If this persists, it may influence how operators and suppliers think about political and other event-led products over the medium term.
• The deepening “circuit split” on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA could shape the operating environment for US-facing prediction markets. Any Supreme Court ruling may set guardrails that could, indirectly, inform global perceptions of where prediction markets sit relative to traditional sports betting. UK-facing firms may watch these developments to gauge potential product design and compliance considerations, even though the UK regime is distinct.
• The US midterms provided another high-profile test of pricing accuracy, with both platforms reportedly calling the Democratic sweep early. Consistent price discovery around major events could, over time, encourage broader user interest in event contracts. For UK bettors, understanding how odds translate into implied probabilities remains essential when comparing prices across markets. See our guide on how odds work: /guides/how-do-odds-work-in-betting-uk-guide

What to watch

1. Funding momentum at Kalshi: Whether the reported $1 billion raise at a $65 billion valuation gets done, and how any terms compare with the October round.
2. Supreme Court timing: If Kalshi seeks US Supreme Court review within the 90-day window and whether the Court agrees to hear the case, potentially clarifying the status of sports event contracts.
3. Exit and governance signals: How high-profile advisory relationships evolve when capital flows to rival platforms, and whether more operators adopt stricter conflict-of-interest policies.
4. IPO chatter versus private capital: Fresh private rounds may delay listings, but continued speculation suggests public-market options could re-emerge if conditions improve.
5. 2028 election cycle liquidity: After several seven-figure trades were placed late on 2024 Election Night, trading depth around the next US presidential race may be an indicator of mainstream traction.

Further reading

• How odds and probabilities relate: /guides/how-do-odds-work-in-betting-uk-guide
• Core concepts in sports markets: /sports-betting
• Check single-bet payouts: /bet-calculator/single
• Manage staking across events: /tools/bankroll-manager

Related guides

• [How Slots Work](/how-slots-work)
• [Bonus Types](/bonus-types)
• [Wagering Requirements](/wagering-requirements)

Source

This article is based on the report "Donald Trump Jr. ends advisory role with Kalshi after VC firm doubles down on Polymarket" published by iGaming Business on 13 November 2026.

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