Sports Betting Kelly Calculator
Enter your edge and bankroll to find the optimal stake using the Kelly Criterion.
1%99%
$83.33
Recommended Stake
8.33%
Kelly %
40.0%
Implied Probability
+5.0%
Your Edge
+$10.42
Expected Value
2.500
Decimal Odds
Bookmaker implied: 40.0%Your estimate: 45%
+5.0% positive edge — Kelly recommends betting
Kelly Fraction Guide
Full Kelly (100%)Very HighTheoretically optimal but extreme variance. Rarely recommended.
Half Kelly (50%)HighPopular among professional bettors. Reduces variance significantly.
Third Kelly (33%)HighA middle ground between Half and Full Kelly. Uncommon in practice but reasonable for bettors with high-confidence edge estimates.
Quarter Kelly (25%)ModerateConservative. Good starting point for recreational bettors.
Fifth Kelly (20%)LowA cautious approach suited to bettors uncertain about their edge. Maintains meaningful stake sizes while smoothing bankroll swings.
Eighth Kelly (12.5%)LowExtremely conservative. Suitable for model-based staking where edge confidence is low or probabilities are derived from limited data.
Tenth Kelly (10%)LowVery conservative. For uncertain edge estimates.